Oil, gold and other commodities prices slipped last week as traders bet on the possibility of a peace deal ahead of Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin last Friday. The expectation of a cooling off in US–Russia relations pushed investors out of extra safe assets like gold and reduced demand worries around oil.
This Monday, the picture had shifted slightly. Since the talks ended without a concrete peace framework, investors started to buy back into commodities. Brent crude recovered to around US$ 66 per barrel, while gold also ticked higher. The rebound was modest, but it showed that markets remain sensitive to political signals when clear outcomes are missing.
The meeting taking place this afternoon between Trump and Ukrain’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is also in the spotlight. Markets are watching closely as any progress toward a security framework could ease geopolitical risk premiums built into oil and gold. Concrete steps to stabilize the energy and political outlook in the region would likely reduce pressure on commodity prices and limit volatility in the short term.
Other global factors are also weighing heavily on prices. In China, weaker industrial activity and softer retail sales have raised questions about energy demand, keeping oil under pressure. At the same time, the Fed has taken a cautious line on interest rate cuts, limiting gold’s upside since higher rates tend to support the dollar.
What’s next
Economists and investment bankers are pointing out that volatility must go on. Crude oil prices will remain exposed to geopolitics and fragile demand trends, especially with OPEC+ still managing supply cuts. Gold is expected to trade in a relatively narrow range, pulled between investor fears over global risks and the strength of the dollar, according to a recent report published by UBS analysts.
For retail investors, commodities remain an attractive hedge in periods of uncertainty, but volatility will stay high as long as geopolitics and Chinese demand weigh on the scenario. Diversification across assets remains part of the strategy for personal investors, since relying heavily on oil or gold alone can leave portfolios exposed.
