The US-China trade war has been a global headache, but not everyone is losing sleep. As tariffs bite and supply chains shift, some investors that can count on extra dry powder to buy on low, as well as some developing economies (and companies) are finding unexpected opportunities. While its early to call winners and the overall result must be a negative impact overall, it is worth to observe the short-term outcomes.
Portfolios more concentrated in assets such as commodities and retail outside of the US benefited from the trade war or at least could count on some sense of stability during and after tariffs and sanctions started to take place. Others, such the S&P 500 companies and big techs based on the US are struggling more given their position and even their proximity with Trump’s government.
Investor concerns are mounting, with stock futures dipping and gold prices rising as a safe haven. Companies based in the American country are withdrawing financial guidance due to tariff uncertainties, and a record $137.6 billion trade deficit was reported in March, driven by a surge in imports ahead of potential policy changes. But that is almost “no news”. Let’s take a look on the green side of this.
Geopolitics and Global Trade
Indian manufacturers are capitalizing on the shifting trade landscape. Take for instance RR Kabel, a wire and cable producer, that anticipates a 16% to 18% volume growth in fiscal 2026, up from 7% in 2025. This surge is attributed to US tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, making Indian exports more competitive. The company plans to expand its American customer base from one to five major clients, with exports accounting for 26% of its total sales until next year. Other local rivals such as Polycab and Havells are coming next.
Brazil is also emerging as a beneficiary of the trade tensions. The country has seen its currency strengthen, and economists suggest that the trade war could boost its commodity exports, particularly soybeans and corn, as China seeks alternatives to US suppliers on such products. It is worth to mention that this was an already ongoing trend only intensified by the tariff movements in the few past months.
Countries like Singapore are poised to gain from the realignment of global supply chains. As manufacturers diversify to mitigate tariff impacts, the country’s strategic location and extremely developed technological infrastructure make it an attractive hub for investment for funds worldwide. The same can be said for other countries in that area, such as XXX
The U.S.–China trade war has created both challenges and opportunities. While it disrupted traditional trade flows, it also opened doors for emerging economies and prompted companies to rethink their global strategies. As the dust settles, the true winners will be those who adapted swiftly and strategically to the new trade landscape.
